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Jezero vs FK Mladost Podgorica — First League 2019

Jezero
Jezero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Mladost Podgorica
FK Mladost Podgorica
9/26/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Stadion pod Racinom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Jezero45%
×Draw29%
FK Mladost Podgorica26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.28
FK Mladost Podgorica
0.91

Jezero creates 41% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.18
FK Mladost Podgorica
0.82

allows per match

Jezero
1.00
FK Mladost Podgorica
1.38

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
FK Mladost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

FK Mladost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
74%
Jezero or FK Mladost Podgorica
71%
Draw or FK Mladost Podgorica
55%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
21%
FK Mladost Podgorica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
72%
Jezero 2+ goals
37%
Jezero 3+ goals
14%
FK Mladost Podgorica 1+ goals
60%
FK Mladost Podgorica 2+ goals
23%
FK Mladost Podgorica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
63%
FK Mladost Podgorica (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

FK Mladost Podgorica away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.18 + FK Mladost Podgorica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

FK Mladost Podgorica attack 0.82 + Jezero defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Jezero scores more
45%
level
29%
FK Mladost Podgorica scores more
26%

Jezero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Jezero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Jezero 1–0 FK Mladost Podgorica

Jezero beat FK Mladost Podgorica 1-0 in First League on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion pod Racinom in Plav.