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Jezero vs Drezga — Second League 2019

Jezero
Jezero
FT
1 – 2
Drezga
Drezga
9/15/2019Second LeagueSecond League · Round 7Stadion pod Racinom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jezero57%
×Draw25%
Drezga18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.64
Drezga
0.81

Jezero creates 102% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 33 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.40
Drezga
0.82

allows per match

Jezero
0.80
Drezga
1.88

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
Drezga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Drezga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
82%
Jezero or Drezga
75%
Draw or Drezga
43%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
31%
Drezga wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
81%
Jezero 2+ goals
49%
Jezero 3+ goals
23%
Drezga 1+ goals
56%
Drezga 2+ goals
19%
Drezga 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
76%
Drezga (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Drezga away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.40 + Drezga defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.64

Drezga attack 0.82 + Jezero defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jezero scores more
57%
level
25%
Drezga scores more
18%

Jezero at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jezero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Jezero 1–2 Drezga

Drezga beat Jezero 2-1 in Second League on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion pod Racinom in Plav.