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Jezero vs Dečić — First League 2019

Jezero
Jezero
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dečić
Dečić
3/11/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Stadion Pod Racinom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Jezero35%
×Draw30%
Dečić35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jezero
1.05
Dečić
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 108 away

creates per match

Jezero
1.18
Dečić
1.08

allows per match

Jezero
1.00
Dečić
0.93

finishing

Jezero+0.00on par
Dečić+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jezero ↓

Dečić →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jezero or draw
65%
Jezero or Dečić
70%
Draw or Dečić
65%

Winning margin

Jezero wins by 2+
14%
Dečić wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jezero 1+ goals
65%
Jezero 2+ goals
28%
Jezero 3+ goals
9%
Dečić 1+ goals
65%
Dečić 2+ goals
28%
Dečić 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jezero (draw refunded)
50%
Dečić (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jezero at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.00 · 111 matches

Dečić away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.93 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jezero attack 1.18 + Dečić defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dečić attack 1.08 + Jezero defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Jezero scores more
35%
level
30%
Dečić scores more
35%

Jezero at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Jezero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jezero vs Dečić

Dečić beat Jezero 2-1 in First League on March 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Racinom in Plav.