Jeunesse Useldange 1–3 Marisca Mersch

Jeunesse Useldange

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Marisca Mersch

10/6/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundTerrain Rue de Boevange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jeunesse Useldange33%

×Draw21%

Marisca Mersch46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunesse UseldangeExpected goals in this matchMarisca Mersch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

2.15

Jeunesse Useldange

1.80

Marisca Mersch

2.15

Marisca Mersch creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.80

creates per match

2.10

2.20

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jeunesse Useldange

1.80

Marisca Mersch

2.10

allows per match

Jeunesse Useldange

2.20

Marisca Mersch

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunesse Useldange+0.00on par

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Useldange ↓

Marisca Mersch →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Jeunesse Useldange or draw

54%

Jeunesse Useldange or Marisca Mersch

79%

Draw or Marisca Mersch

67%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Useldange wins by 2+

17%

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Jeunesse Useldange 1+ goals

83%

Jeunesse Useldange 2+ goals

54%

Jeunesse Useldange 3+ goals

27%

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals

88%

Marisca Mersch 2+ goals

63%

Marisca Mersch 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Useldange (draw refunded)

42%

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Useldange at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Useldange attack 1.80 + Marisca Mersch defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.80

Marisca Mersch attack 2.10 + Jeunesse Useldange defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Jeunesse Useldange scores more

33%

level

21%

Marisca Mersch scores more

46%

Marisca Mersch at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marisca Mersch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff