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Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Sporting Ben Arous — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
CANC
14:00
Sporting Ben Arous
Sporting Ben Arous
10/9/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Group A - 1Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane64%
×Draw22%
Sporting Ben Arous14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.79
Sporting Ben Arous
0.69

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 159% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 46 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
Sporting Ben Arous
0.54

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
Sporting Ben Arous
1.26

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
86%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or Sporting Ben Arous
78%
Draw or Sporting Ben Arous
36%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
37%
Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
83%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
53%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
26%
Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals
50%
Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals
15%
Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
82%
Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
64%
level
22%
Sporting Ben Arous scores more
14%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Sporting Ben Arous — Match Preview

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane face Sporting Ben Arous on October 9, 2022 in this Ligue 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane host Sporting Ben Arous at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.