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Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Moknine — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Moknine
Moknine
5/6/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 19Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane63%
×Draw21%
Moknine16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.95
Moknine
0.86

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 127% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 49 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
Moknine
0.90

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
Moknine
1.57

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
Moknine+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

Moknine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
84%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or Moknine
79%
Draw or Moknine
37%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
38%
Moknine wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
86%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
58%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
31%
Moknine 1+ goals
58%
Moknine 2+ goals
21%
Moknine 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
80%
Moknine (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Moknine away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + Moknine defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Moknine attack 0.90 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
63%
level
21%
Moknine scores more
16%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Moknine

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat Moknine 2-0 in Ligue 2 on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.