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Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs M'saken — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
M'saken
M'saken
4/26/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane62%
×Draw23%
M'saken15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.77
M'saken
0.73

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 142% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 59 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
M'saken
0.63

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
M'saken
1.20

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

M'saken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
85%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or M'saken
77%
Draw or M'saken
38%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
36%
M'saken wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
83%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
53%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
26%
M'saken 1+ goals
52%
M'saken 2+ goals
17%
M'saken 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
81%
M'saken (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

M'saken attack 0.63 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
62%
level
23%
M'saken scores more
15%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 4–0 M'saken

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat M'saken 4-0 in Ligue 2 on April 26, 2023.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.