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Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Djerba
Djerba
12/11/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane65%
×Draw22%
Djerba13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1.85
Djerba
0.69

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane creates 168% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
2.33
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
0.83
Djerba
1.36

finishing

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or draw
87%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane or Djerba
78%
Draw or Djerba
35%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane wins by 2+
39%
Djerba wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 1+ goals
84%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 2+ goals
55%
Jeunesse Sportive Omrane 3+ goals
28%
Djerba 1+ goals
50%
Djerba 2+ goals
15%
Djerba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane (draw refunded)
83%
Djerba (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane attack 2.33 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

Djerba attack 0.55 + Jeunesse Sportive Omrane defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane scores more
65%
level
22%
Djerba scores more
13%

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jeunesse Sportive Omrane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Sportive Omrane vs Djerba

Jeunesse Sportive Omrane beat Djerba 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Complexe sportif Taieb ben Ammar El Omrane in Tunis.