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Jeunesse Junglinster vs Wiltz — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Junglinster
Jeunesse Junglinster
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Wiltz
Wiltz
10/1/2023CupCup · 2nd RoundTerrain Route de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Junglinster11%
×Draw12%
Wiltz77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Junglinster
1.46
Wiltz
3.74

Wiltz creates 156% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Junglinster
1.75
Wiltz
3.73

allows per match

Jeunesse Junglinster
3.75
Wiltz
1.18

finishing

Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Junglinster ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–24%
0–35%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Jeunesse Junglinster or draw
23%
Jeunesse Junglinster or Wiltz
88%
Draw or Wiltz
89%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+
4%
Wiltz wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals
77%
Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals
43%
Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals
18%
Wiltz 1+ goals
97%
Wiltz 2+ goals
88%
Wiltz 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)
13%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Junglinster at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Wiltz away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 1.75 + Wiltz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wiltz attack 3.73 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Jeunesse Junglinster scores more
11%
level
12%
Wiltz scores more
77%

Wiltz at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Jeunesse Junglinster 0–4 Wiltz

Wiltz beat Jeunesse Junglinster 4-0 in Cup on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Terrain Route de Luxembourg in Junglinster.