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Jeunesse Junglinster vs US Hostert — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Junglinster
Jeunesse Junglinster
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
US Hostert
US Hostertadvanced
11/9/2024CupCup · Round of 32Terrain Route de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Junglinster15%
×Draw15%
US Hostert70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Junglinster
1.50
US Hostert
3.25

US Hostert creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Junglinster
1.75
US Hostert
2.75

allows per match

Jeunesse Junglinster
3.75
US Hostert
1.25

finishing

Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par
US Hostert+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Junglinster ↓

US Hostert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–35%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Jeunesse Junglinster or draw
30%
Jeunesse Junglinster or US Hostert
85%
Draw or US Hostert
85%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+
6%
US Hostert wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals
78%
Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals
44%
Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals
19%
US Hostert 1+ goals
96%
US Hostert 2+ goals
83%
US Hostert 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)
18%
US Hostert (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Junglinster at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

US Hostert away — creates 2.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 1.75 + US Hostert defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

US Hostert attack 2.75 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Jeunesse Junglinster scores more
15%
level
15%
US Hostert scores more
70%

US Hostert at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "US Hostert will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Junglinster vs US Hostert

US Hostert beat Jeunesse Junglinster 4-2 in Cup on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Route de Luxembourg in Junglinster.