Jeunesse Junglinster 2–1 Feulen: Result & Stats

Jeunesse Junglinster

AET

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Feulen

10/6/2024

Cup · 2nd RoundTerrain Route de Luxembourg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Junglinster17%

×Draw15%

Feulen68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunesse JunglinsterExpected goals in this matchFeulen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

3.48

Jeunesse Junglinster

1.77

Feulen

3.48

Feulen creates 97% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.75

creates per match

3.20

3.75

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jeunesse Junglinster

1.75

Feulen

3.20

allows per match

Jeunesse Junglinster

3.75

Feulen

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par

Feulen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over89
Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Junglinster ↓

Feulen →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–34%

0–43%

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–37%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–34%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

89%11%3.5

75%25%4.5

57%43%

Double chance

Jeunesse Junglinster or draw

32%

Jeunesse Junglinster or Feulen

85%

Draw or Feulen

83%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+

Feulen wins by 2+

50%

Team goals

Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals

83%

Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals

53%

Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals

26%

Feulen 1+ goals

97%

Feulen 2+ goals

85%

Feulen 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)

20%

Feulen (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Junglinster at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Feulen away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 1.75 + Feulen defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Feulen attack 3.20 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Jeunesse Junglinster scores more

17%

level

15%

Feulen scores more

68%

Feulen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Feulen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff