Jeunesse Junglinster 2–6 Bettembourg

Jeunesse Junglinster

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 2

Bettembourg

9/21/2025

Cup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Junglinster15%

×Draw14%

Bettembourg71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunesse JunglinsterExpected goals in this matchBettembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

3.38

Jeunesse Junglinster

1.56

Bettembourg

3.38

Bettembourg creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.75

creates per match

3.00

3.75

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Jeunesse Junglinster

1.75

Bettembourg

3.00

allows per match

Jeunesse Junglinster

3.75

Bettembourg

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunesse Junglinster+0.00on par

Bettembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Junglinster ↓

Bettembourg →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–35%

0–44%

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–36%

2–45%

3–00%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–43%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Jeunesse Junglinster or draw

29%

Jeunesse Junglinster or Bettembourg

86%

Draw or Bettembourg

85%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Junglinster wins by 2+

Bettembourg wins by 2+

52%

Team goals

Jeunesse Junglinster 1+ goals

79%

Jeunesse Junglinster 2+ goals

46%

Jeunesse Junglinster 3+ goals

21%

Bettembourg 1+ goals

96%

Bettembourg 2+ goals

84%

Bettembourg 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Junglinster (draw refunded)

17%

Bettembourg (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Junglinster at home — creates 1.75, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

Bettembourg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Junglinster attack 1.75 + Bettembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bettembourg attack 3.00 + Jeunesse Junglinster defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Jeunesse Junglinster scores more

15%

level

14%

Bettembourg scores more

71%

Bettembourg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Bettembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff