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Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Wiltz — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Wiltz
Wiltz
10/2/2022CupCup · 2nd RoundUm Krottepull

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Gilsdorf11%
×Draw13%
Wiltz76%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.21
Wiltz
3.24

Wiltz creates 168% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.25
Wiltz
3.73

allows per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
2.75
Wiltz
1.18

finishing

Jeunesse Gilsdorf+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Gilsdorf ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Jeunesse Gilsdorf or draw
24%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf or Wiltz
87%
Draw or Wiltz
89%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Gilsdorf wins by 2+
4%
Wiltz wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Jeunesse Gilsdorf 1+ goals
70%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 2+ goals
34%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 3+ goals
12%
Wiltz 1+ goals
96%
Wiltz 2+ goals
83%
Wiltz 3+ goals
61%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Gilsdorf (draw refunded)
13%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Gilsdorf at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Wiltz away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf attack 1.25 + Wiltz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wiltz attack 3.73 + Jeunesse Gilsdorf defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Jeunesse Gilsdorf scores more
11%
level
13%
Wiltz scores more
76%

Wiltz at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Wiltz

Wiltz beat Jeunesse Gilsdorf 5-0 in Cup on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Um Krottepull in Gilsdorf.