Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Résidence Walferdange — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
FT
3 – 2
Résidence Walferdange
Résidence Walferdange
9/9/2020CupCup · 1st RoundUm Krottepull

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Gilsdorf17%
×Draw17%
Résidence Walferdange65%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.29
Résidence Walferdange
2.63

Résidence Walferdange creates 104% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.25
Résidence Walferdange
2.50

allows per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
2.75
Résidence Walferdange
1.33

finishing

Jeunesse Gilsdorf+0.00on par
Résidence Walferdange+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Gilsdorf ↓

Résidence Walferdange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Jeunesse Gilsdorf or draw
35%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf or Résidence Walferdange
83%
Draw or Résidence Walferdange
83%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Gilsdorf wins by 2+
7%
Résidence Walferdange wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Jeunesse Gilsdorf 1+ goals
72%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 2+ goals
37%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 3+ goals
14%
Résidence Walferdange 1+ goals
93%
Résidence Walferdange 2+ goals
73%
Résidence Walferdange 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Gilsdorf (draw refunded)
21%
Résidence Walferdange (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Gilsdorf at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Résidence Walferdange away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf attack 1.25 + Résidence Walferdange defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Résidence Walferdange attack 2.50 + Jeunesse Gilsdorf defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jeunesse Gilsdorf scores more
17%
level
17%
Résidence Walferdange scores more
65%

Résidence Walferdange at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Résidence Walferdange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Résidence Walferdange

Jeunesse Gilsdorf beat Résidence Walferdange 3-2 in Cup on September 9, 2020.

The match was played at Um Krottepull in Gilsdorf.