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Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Mamer — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mamer
Mameradvanced
9/21/2025CupCup · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Gilsdorf21%
×Draw21%
Mamer58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.21
Mamer
2.13

Mamer creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.25
Mamer
1.50

allows per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
2.75
Mamer
1.17

finishing

Jeunesse Gilsdorf+0.00on par
Mamer+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Gilsdorf ↓

Mamer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Jeunesse Gilsdorf or draw
42%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf or Mamer
79%
Draw or Mamer
79%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Gilsdorf wins by 2+
8%
Mamer wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Jeunesse Gilsdorf 1+ goals
70%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 2+ goals
34%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 3+ goals
12%
Mamer 1+ goals
88%
Mamer 2+ goals
63%
Mamer 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Gilsdorf (draw refunded)
27%
Mamer (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Gilsdorf at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Mamer away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf attack 1.25 + Mamer defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mamer attack 1.50 + Jeunesse Gilsdorf defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jeunesse Gilsdorf scores more
21%
level
21%
Mamer scores more
58%

Mamer at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mamer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Mamer

Jeunesse Gilsdorf and Mamer drew 1-1 in Cup on September 21, 2025.