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Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Etzella Ettelbruck — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
Jeunesse Gilsdorf
FT
1 – 2
Etzella Ettelbruck
Etzella Ettelbruck
10/17/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundComplexe Sportif Boy Konen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Jeunesse Gilsdorf14%
×Draw15%
Etzella Ettelbruck71%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.34
Etzella Ettelbruck
3.04

Etzella Ettelbruck creates 127% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
1.25
Etzella Ettelbruck
3.33

allows per match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf
2.75
Etzella Ettelbruck
1.44

finishing

Jeunesse Gilsdorf+0.00on par
Etzella Ettelbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Gilsdorf ↓

Etzella Ettelbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Jeunesse Gilsdorf or draw
29%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf or Etzella Ettelbruck
85%
Draw or Etzella Ettelbruck
86%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Gilsdorf wins by 2+
6%
Etzella Ettelbruck wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Jeunesse Gilsdorf 1+ goals
74%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 2+ goals
39%
Jeunesse Gilsdorf 3+ goals
15%
Etzella Ettelbruck 1+ goals
95%
Etzella Ettelbruck 2+ goals
80%
Etzella Ettelbruck 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Gilsdorf (draw refunded)
17%
Etzella Ettelbruck (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Gilsdorf at home — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Etzella Ettelbruck away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Gilsdorf attack 1.25 + Etzella Ettelbruck defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Etzella Ettelbruck attack 3.33 + Jeunesse Gilsdorf defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Jeunesse Gilsdorf scores more
14%
level
15%
Etzella Ettelbruck scores more
71%

Etzella Ettelbruck at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Etzella Ettelbruck will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Gilsdorf vs Etzella Ettelbruck

Etzella Ettelbruck beat Jeunesse Gilsdorf 2-1 in Cup on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Complexe Sportif Boy Konen in Cessange.