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Jeunesse Biwer vs Sporting Bertrange — Cup 2020

Jeunesse Biwer
Jeunesse Biwer
FT
2 – 3
Sporting Bertrange
Sporting Bertrange
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundCentre Sportif Fancy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jeunesse Biwer14%
×Draw15%
Sporting Bertrange72%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunesse Biwer
1.36
Sporting Bertrange
3.17

Sporting Bertrange creates 133% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jeunesse Biwer
1.33
Sporting Bertrange
3.00

allows per match

Jeunesse Biwer
3.33
Sporting Bertrange
1.40

finishing

Jeunesse Biwer+0.00on par
Sporting Bertrange+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunesse Biwer ↓

Sporting Bertrange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Jeunesse Biwer or draw
28%
Jeunesse Biwer or Sporting Bertrange
85%
Draw or Sporting Bertrange
86%

Winning margin

Jeunesse Biwer wins by 2+
5%
Sporting Bertrange wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Jeunesse Biwer 1+ goals
74%
Jeunesse Biwer 2+ goals
39%
Jeunesse Biwer 3+ goals
16%
Sporting Bertrange 1+ goals
96%
Sporting Bertrange 2+ goals
82%
Sporting Bertrange 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

Jeunesse Biwer (draw refunded)
16%
Sporting Bertrange (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunesse Biwer at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

Sporting Bertrange away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunesse Biwer attack 1.33 + Sporting Bertrange defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sporting Bertrange attack 3.00 + Jeunesse Biwer defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Jeunesse Biwer scores more
14%
level
15%
Sporting Bertrange scores more
72%

Sporting Bertrange at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sporting Bertrange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeunesse Biwer vs Sporting Bertrange

Sporting Bertrange beat Jeunesse Biwer 3-2 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Centre Sportif Fancy in Biwer.