Jeunes Fauves 1–2 Victoria United: Result & Stats

Jeunes Fauves

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Victoria United

9/27/2023

Elite One · Round 1Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Jeunes Fauves41%

×Draw26%

Victoria United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunes FauvesExpected goals in this matchVictoria United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Jeunes Fauves

1.39

Victoria United

1.23

Jeunes Fauves creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 40 away

1.08

creates per match

1.20

1.27

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.08

Victoria United

1.20

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.27

Victoria United

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Victoria United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Victoria United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw

67%

Jeunes Fauves or Victoria United

74%

Draw or Victoria United

59%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

19%

Victoria United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

75%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

40%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

16%

Victoria United 1+ goals

71%

Victoria United 2+ goals

35%

Victoria United 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

55%

Victoria United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Victoria United away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Victoria United defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.39

Victoria United attack 1.20 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more

41%

level

26%

Victoria United scores more

33%

Jeunes Fauves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff