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Jeunes Fauves vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
FT
2 – 1
Union Douala
Union Douala
4/30/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 14Stade de la Réunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves37%
×Draw30%
Union Douala33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunes Fauves
1.08
Union Douala
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 85 away

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.08
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.27
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw
67%
Jeunes Fauves or Union Douala
70%
Draw or Union Douala
63%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
15%
Union Douala wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
66%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
29%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
10%
Union Douala 1+ goals
63%
Union Douala 2+ goals
26%
Union Douala 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
53%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more
37%
level
30%
Union Douala scores more
33%

Jeunes Fauves at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Jeunes Fauves 2–1 Union Douala

Jeunes Fauves beat Union Douala 2-1 in Elite One on April 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de la Réunification in Douala.