Jeunes Fauves 2–1 Stade de Bertoua: Result & Stats

Jeunes Fauves

FT

2 – 1

Stade de Bertoua

7/9/2021

Elite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jeunes Fauves56%

×Draw25%

Stade de Bertoua19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunes FauvesExpected goals in this matchStade de Bertoua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.80

Jeunes Fauves

1.57

Stade de Bertoua

0.80

Jeunes Fauves creates 96% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.75

creates per match

0.72

0.88

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.75

Stade de Bertoua

0.72

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves

0.88

Stade de Bertoua

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Stade de Bertoua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Stade de Bertoua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw

81%

Jeunes Fauves or Stade de Bertoua

75%

Draw or Stade de Bertoua

44%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

29%

Stade de Bertoua wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

79%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

46%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

21%

Stade de Bertoua 1+ goals

55%

Stade de Bertoua 2+ goals

19%

Stade de Bertoua 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

74%

Stade de Bertoua (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Stade de Bertoua away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.75 + Stade de Bertoua defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.57

Stade de Bertoua attack 0.72 + Jeunes Fauves defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more

56%

level

25%

Stade de Bertoua scores more

19%

Jeunes Fauves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff