Jeunes Fauves 1–0 Cotonsport: Result & Stats

Jeunes Fauves

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cotonsport

Unknown 11'

10/14/2023

Elite One · Round 4Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves30%

×Draw29%

Cotonsport41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeunes FauvesExpected goals in this matchCotonsport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.20

Jeunes Fauves

0.98

Cotonsport

1.20

Cotonsport creates 22% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 100 away

1.08

creates per match

1.12

1.27

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.08

Cotonsport

1.12

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves

1.27

Cotonsport

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Cotonsport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Cotonsport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw

59%

Jeunes Fauves or Cotonsport

71%

Draw or Cotonsport

70%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

11%

Cotonsport wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

62%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

26%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

8%

Cotonsport 1+ goals

70%

Cotonsport 2+ goals

34%

Cotonsport 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

42%

Cotonsport (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Cotonsport away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Cotonsport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Cotonsport attack 1.12 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more

30%

level

29%

Cotonsport scores more

41%

Cotonsport at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cotonsport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

52'

C. Madjem

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff