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Jeunes Fauves vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Jeunes Fauves
Jeunes Fauves
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
3/2/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 17Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Jeunes Fauves39%
×Draw29%
Avion Academy32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeunes Fauves
1.17
Avion Academy
1.04

Jeunes Fauves creates 13% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

creates per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.08
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Jeunes Fauves
1.27
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeunes Fauves ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jeunes Fauves or draw
68%
Jeunes Fauves or Avion Academy
71%
Draw or Avion Academy
61%

Winning margin

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+
16%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals
69%
Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals
33%
Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals
11%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
65%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
28%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)
55%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeunes Fauves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeunes Fauves attack 1.08 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jeunes Fauves scores more
39%
level
29%
Avion Academy scores more
32%

Jeunes Fauves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jeunes Fauves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Jeunes Fauves 1–0 Avion Academy

Jeunes Fauves beat Avion Academy 1-0 in Elite One on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport in Yaoundé.