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Jeseník vs Vratimov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jeseník
Jeseník
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vratimov
Vratimov
3/9/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 16Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník31%
×Draw25%
Vratimov44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeseník
1.28
Vratimov
1.56

Vratimov creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jeseník
1.00
Vratimov
1.40

allows per match

Jeseník
1.73
Vratimov
1.56

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par
Vratimov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Vratimov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw
56%
Jeseník or Vratimov
75%
Draw or Vratimov
69%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+
13%
Vratimov wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals
72%
Jeseník 2+ goals
37%
Jeseník 3+ goals
14%
Vratimov 1+ goals
79%
Vratimov 2+ goals
46%
Vratimov 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)
42%
Vratimov (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Vratimov away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.56 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Vratimov defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.28

Vratimov attack 1.40 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jeseník scores more
31%
level
25%
Vratimov scores more
44%

Vratimov at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Vratimov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Jeseník 1–2 Vratimov

Vratimov beat Jeseník 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Jeseník in Jeseník.