Jeseník 0–2 Vítkovice: Result & Stats

Jeseník

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vítkovice

3/23/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 18Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník24%

×Draw21%

Vítkovice55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JeseníkExpected goals in this matchVítkovice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

2.14

Jeseník

1.34

Vítkovice

2.14

Vítkovice creates 60% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

1.00

creates per match

2.55

1.73

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Jeseník

1.00

Vítkovice

2.55

allows per match

Jeseník

1.73

Vítkovice

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par

Vítkovice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Vítkovice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw

45%

Jeseník or Vítkovice

79%

Draw or Vítkovice

76%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+

10%

Vítkovice wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals

74%

Jeseník 2+ goals

39%

Jeseník 3+ goals

15%

Vítkovice 1+ goals

88%

Vítkovice 2+ goals

63%

Vítkovice 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)

30%

Vítkovice (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Vítkovice away — creates 2.55, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Vítkovice defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Vítkovice attack 2.55 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Jeseník scores more

24%

level

21%

Vítkovice scores more

55%

Vítkovice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vítkovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff