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Jeseník vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jeseník
Jeseník
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
8/12/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 2Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník50%
×Draw23%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeseník
1.85
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
1.31

Jeseník creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Jeseník
1.00
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
0.89

allows per match

Jeseník
1.73
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
2.71

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw
73%
Jeseník or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
77%
Draw or Slavoj Olympia Bruntál
50%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+
28%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals
84%
Jeseník 2+ goals
55%
Jeseník 3+ goals
28%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 1+ goals
73%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 2+ goals
38%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)
65%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Slavoj Olympia Bruntál defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Slavoj Olympia Bruntál attack 0.89 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jeseník scores more
50%
level
23%
Slavoj Olympia Bruntál scores more
27%

Jeseník at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jeseník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeseník vs Slavoj Olympia Bruntál

Jeseník and Slavoj Olympia Bruntál drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on August 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jeseník in Jeseník.