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Jeseník vs Řepiště — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jeseník
Jeseník
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Řepiště
Řepiště
9/30/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 9Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník53%
×Draw21%
Řepiště25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeseník
2.04
Řepiště
1.35

Jeseník creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jeseník
1.00
Řepiště
0.97

allows per match

Jeseník
1.73
Řepiště
3.07

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par
Řepiště+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Řepiště →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw
75%
Jeseník or Řepiště
79%
Draw or Řepiště
47%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+
31%
Řepiště wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals
87%
Jeseník 2+ goals
60%
Jeseník 3+ goals
33%
Řepiště 1+ goals
74%
Řepiště 2+ goals
39%
Řepiště 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)
68%
Řepiště (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Řepiště away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Řepiště defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.04

Řepiště attack 0.97 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jeseník scores more
53%
level
21%
Řepiště scores more
25%

Jeseník at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Jeseník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeseník vs Řepiště

Jeseník beat Řepiště 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jeseník in Jeseník.