Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jeseník vs Bospor Bohumín — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jeseník
Jeseník
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bospor Bohumín
Bospor Bohumín
9/2/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 5Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník28%
×Draw23%
Bospor Bohumín49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeseník
1.27
Bospor Bohumín
1.77

Bospor Bohumín creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 77 away

creates per match

Jeseník
1.00
Bospor Bohumín
1.81

allows per match

Jeseník
1.73
Bospor Bohumín
1.55

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par
Bospor Bohumín+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Bospor Bohumín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw
51%
Jeseník or Bospor Bohumín
77%
Draw or Bospor Bohumín
72%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+
12%
Bospor Bohumín wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals
72%
Jeseník 2+ goals
36%
Jeseník 3+ goals
14%
Bospor Bohumín 1+ goals
83%
Bospor Bohumín 2+ goals
53%
Bospor Bohumín 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)
36%
Bospor Bohumín (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Bospor Bohumín away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Bospor Bohumín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bospor Bohumín attack 1.81 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Jeseník scores more
28%
level
23%
Bospor Bohumín scores more
49%

Bospor Bohumín at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bospor Bohumín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeseník vs Bospor Bohumín

Bospor Bohumín beat Jeseník 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Jeseník in Jeseník.