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Jeseník vs Bílovec — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Jeseník
Jeseník
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bílovec
Bílovec
4/13/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 21Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník28%
×Draw24%
Bílovec48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeseník
1.22
Bílovec
1.68

Bílovec creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 71 away

creates per match

Jeseník
1.00
Bílovec
1.63

allows per match

Jeseník
1.73
Bílovec
1.44

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par
Bílovec+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Bílovec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw
52%
Jeseník or Bílovec
76%
Draw or Bílovec
72%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+
11%
Bílovec wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals
70%
Jeseník 2+ goals
34%
Jeseník 3+ goals
12%
Bílovec 1+ goals
81%
Bílovec 2+ goals
50%
Bílovec 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)
37%
Bílovec (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Bílovec away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Bílovec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Bílovec attack 1.63 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Jeseník scores more
28%
level
24%
Bílovec scores more
48%

Bílovec at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bílovec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Jeseník 0–1 Bílovec

Bílovec beat Jeseník 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Jeseník in Jeseník.