Jeseník 1–3 Beskyd Frenštát: Result & Stats

Jeseník

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Beskyd Frenštát

5/11/2024

4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 25Stadion Jeseník

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jeseník43%

×Draw23%

Beskyd Frenštát34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JeseníkExpected goals in this matchBeskyd Frenštát

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.48

Jeseník

1.69

Beskyd Frenštát

1.48

Jeseník creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 60 away

1.00

creates per match

1.23

1.73

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Jeseník

1.00

Beskyd Frenštát

1.23

allows per match

Jeseník

1.73

Beskyd Frenštát

2.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeseník+0.00on par

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeseník ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Jeseník or draw

66%

Jeseník or Beskyd Frenštát

77%

Draw or Beskyd Frenštát

57%

Winning margin

Jeseník wins by 2+

22%

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jeseník 1+ goals

82%

Jeseník 2+ goals

50%

Jeseník 3+ goals

24%

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals

77%

Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals

43%

Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Jeseník (draw refunded)

56%

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeseník at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeseník attack 1.00 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.69

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Jeseník defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jeseník scores more

43%

level

23%

Beskyd Frenštát scores more

34%

Jeseník at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jeseník will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff