jerv 1–1 Tromso: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

jerv

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tromso

M. Haarup 30'

E. Moses 33'

5/8/2022

Eliteserien · Round 5J.J. Ugland Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

jerv33%

×Draw25%

Tromso42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

jervExpected goals in this matchTromso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.54

jerv

1.32

Tromso

1.54

Tromso creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 99 away

1.00

creates per match

1.15

1.93

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

jerv

1.00

Tromso

1.15

allows per match

jerv

1.93

Tromso

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

jerv+0.00on par

Tromso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

jerv ↓

Tromso →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

jerv or draw

58%

jerv or Tromso

75%

Draw or Tromso

67%

Winning margin

jerv wins by 2+

14%

Tromso wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

jerv 1+ goals

73%

jerv 2+ goals

38%

jerv 3+ goals

15%

Tromso 1+ goals

79%

Tromso 2+ goals

45%

Tromso 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

jerv (draw refunded)

43%

Tromso (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

jerv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

Tromso away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

jerv attack 1.00 + Tromso defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tromso attack 1.15 + jerv defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

jerv scores more

33%

level

25%

Tromso scores more

42%

Tromso at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

M. Wichmann

jerv · M

8.0

Match Events

30'

M. Haarup↳ M. Wichmann

33'

E. Moses↳ A. Mikkelsen

48'

Jostein Gundersen

66'

R. Antwi← E. Hustad

66'

A. Diallo← A. Şimşir

77'

E. Kitolano← S. Opsahl

78'

E. Sandberg← M. Haarup

78'

J. Tuominen← E. Moses

90+1'

Erik Brenden

90'

F. Winther← L. Nilsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

jervTromso

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots15

9Corners3

18Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots15

2On Target4

3Off Target9

3Blocked2

6Inside Box8

2Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

384Total Passes454

295Accurate Passes365

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

Match Recap: jerv vs Tromso

jerv and Tromso drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on May 8, 2022.

Goals: M. Haarup (30'), E. Moses (33').

Tromso controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at J.J. Ugland Stadion in Grimstad.

jerv vs Tromso — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: jerv vs Tromso