jerv 0–1 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

jerv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

M. Jevtović 70'

5/22/2022

Eliteserien · Round 7J.J. Ugland Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

jerv34%

×Draw25%

ODD Ballklubb41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

jervExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.50

jerv

1.35

ODD Ballklubb

1.50

ODD Ballklubb creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 89 away

1.00

creates per match

1.08

1.93

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

jerv

1.00

ODD Ballklubb

1.08

allows per match

jerv

1.93

ODD Ballklubb

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

jerv+0.00on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

jerv ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

jerv or draw

59%

jerv or ODD Ballklubb

75%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

66%

Winning margin

jerv wins by 2+

15%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

jerv 1+ goals

74%

jerv 2+ goals

39%

jerv 3+ goals

15%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

78%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

44%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

jerv (draw refunded)

46%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

jerv at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

jerv attack 1.00 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 + jerv defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

jerv scores more

34%

level

25%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

41%

ODD Ballklubb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "ODD Ballklubb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Jevtović

ODD Ballklubb · F

8.0

Match Events

21'

Erik Brenden

27'

Conrad Wallem

66'

E. Sandberg← R. Antwi

70'

M. Jevtović↳ J. Baccay

72'

Willis Alvés Furtado

75'

A. Diallo← D. Arrocha

75'

M. Ugland← A. Şimşir

81'

T. Lauritsen← A. Stensrud

88'

K. Novak← M. Wichmann

88'

S. Aas← M. Ingebrigtsen

89'

F. Jørgensen← M. Jevtović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

jervODD

Overview

47%Possession53%

7Total Shots20

3Corners7

13Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots20

2On Target6

5Off Target8

0Blocked6

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box14

Passing

47%Possession53%

424Total Passes472

319Accurate Passes373

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: jerv vs ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat jerv 1-0 in Eliteserien on May 22, 2022.

Goals: M. Jevtović (70').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at J.J. Ugland Stadion in Grimstad.

jerv vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: jerv vs ODD Ballklubb