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jerv vs Floro — 1. Division 2018

jerv
jerv
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Floro
Floro
9/2/20181. Division1. Division · Round 22J.J. Ugland Stadion - Levermyr (Grimstad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

jerv53%
×Draw24%
Floro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

jerv
1.71
Floro
1.03

jerv creates 66% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

jerv
1.36
Floro
0.73

allows per match

jerv
1.33
Floro
2.07

finishing

jerv+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

jerv ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

jerv or draw
77%
jerv or Floro
76%
Draw or Floro
47%

Winning margin

jerv wins by 2+
29%
Floro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

jerv 1+ goals
82%
jerv 2+ goals
51%
jerv 3+ goals
24%
Floro 1+ goals
64%
Floro 2+ goals
28%
Floro 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

jerv (draw refunded)
70%
Floro (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

jerv at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.33 · 75 matches

Floro away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

jerv attack 1.36 + Floro defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Floro attack 0.73 + jerv defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

jerv scores more
53%
level
24%
Floro scores more
23%

jerv at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "jerv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: jerv vs Floro

jerv beat Floro 1-0 in 1. Division on September 2, 2018.

The match was played at J.J. Ugland Stadion - Levermyr (Grimstad).