Jerez 3–0 Don Álvaro: Result & Stats

Jerez

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Don Álvaro

11/20/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 10Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Jerez59%

×Draw24%

Don Álvaro17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JerezExpected goals in this matchDon Álvaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.78

Jerez

1.69

Don Álvaro

0.78

Jerez creates 117% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 47 away

1.49

creates per match

0.72

0.84

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Jerez

1.49

Don Álvaro

0.72

allows per match

Jerez

0.84

Don Álvaro

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jerez+0.00on par

Don Álvaro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerez ↓

Don Álvaro →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jerez or draw

83%

Jerez or Don Álvaro

76%

Draw or Don Álvaro

41%

Winning margin

Jerez wins by 2+

33%

Don Álvaro wins by 2+

Team goals

Jerez 1+ goals

82%

Jerez 2+ goals

50%

Jerez 3+ goals

24%

Don Álvaro 1+ goals

54%

Don Álvaro 2+ goals

18%

Don Álvaro 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jerez (draw refunded)

78%

Don Álvaro (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.84 · 109 matches

Don Álvaro away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jerez attack 1.49 + Don Álvaro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.69

Don Álvaro attack 0.72 + Jerez defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Jerez scores more

59%

level

24%

Don Álvaro scores more

17%

Jerez at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Jerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff