Jerez 3–1 Calamonte: Result & Stats

Jerez

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Calamonte

12/8/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 14Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Jerez51%

×Draw26%

Calamonte23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JerezExpected goals in this matchCalamonte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.92

Jerez

1.53

Calamonte

0.92

Jerez creates 66% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 111 away

1.49

creates per match

1.00

0.84

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Jerez

1.49

Calamonte

1.00

allows per match

Jerez

0.84

Calamonte

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jerez+0.00on par

Calamonte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerez ↓

Calamonte →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Jerez or draw

77%

Jerez or Calamonte

74%

Draw or Calamonte

49%

Winning margin

Jerez wins by 2+

27%

Calamonte wins by 2+

Team goals

Jerez 1+ goals

78%

Jerez 2+ goals

45%

Jerez 3+ goals

20%

Calamonte 1+ goals

60%

Calamonte 2+ goals

23%

Calamonte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jerez (draw refunded)

69%

Calamonte (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.84 · 109 matches

Calamonte away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jerez attack 1.49 + Calamonte defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Calamonte attack 1.00 + Jerez defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jerez scores more

51%

level

26%

Calamonte scores more

23%

Jerez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff