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Jerez vs Atlético Pueblonuevo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jerez
Jerez
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Pueblonuevo
Atlético Pueblonuevo
10/13/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Jerez60%
×Draw23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerez
1.80
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.84

Jerez creates 114% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 66 away

creates per match

Jerez
1.49
Atlético Pueblonuevo
0.85

allows per match

Jerez
0.84
Atlético Pueblonuevo
2.11

finishing

Jerez+0.00on par
Atlético Pueblonuevo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerez ↓

Atlético Pueblonuevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jerez or draw
83%
Jerez or Atlético Pueblonuevo
77%
Draw or Atlético Pueblonuevo
40%

Winning margin

Jerez wins by 2+
35%
Atlético Pueblonuevo wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jerez 1+ goals
83%
Jerez 2+ goals
54%
Jerez 3+ goals
27%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 1+ goals
57%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Pueblonuevo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jerez (draw refunded)
78%
Atlético Pueblonuevo (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.84 · 109 matches

Atlético Pueblonuevo away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.11 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerez attack 1.49 + Atlético Pueblonuevo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Atlético Pueblonuevo attack 0.85 + Jerez defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jerez scores more
60%
level
23%
Atlético Pueblonuevo scores more
17%

Jerez at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jerez vs Atlético Pueblonuevo

Jerez beat Atlético Pueblonuevo 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván in Jerez de los Caballeros.