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Jerez vs Arroyo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Jerez
Jerez
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Arroyo
Arroyo
9/15/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 2Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Jerez50%
×Draw27%
Arroyo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerez
1.43
Arroyo
0.86

Jerez creates 66% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 90 away

creates per match

Jerez
1.49
Arroyo
0.89

allows per match

Jerez
0.84
Arroyo
1.37

finishing

Jerez+0.00on par
Arroyo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerez ↓

Arroyo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Jerez or draw
77%
Jerez or Arroyo
73%
Draw or Arroyo
50%

Winning margin

Jerez wins by 2+
25%
Arroyo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jerez 1+ goals
76%
Jerez 2+ goals
42%
Jerez 3+ goals
17%
Arroyo 1+ goals
58%
Arroyo 2+ goals
21%
Arroyo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jerez (draw refunded)
69%
Arroyo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerez at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.84 · 109 matches

Arroyo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerez attack 1.49 + Arroyo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Arroyo attack 0.89 + Jerez defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jerez scores more
50%
level
27%
Arroyo scores more
23%

Jerez at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jerez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jerez 3 – 2 Arroyo

Jerez beat Arroyo 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Calzado Galván in Jerez de los Caballeros.