Jerba 2–1 Transport: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Jerba

FT

2 – 1

Transport

W. Mejri 48'

M. Filali 15'

C. Kochti 7'

12/4/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Arkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jerba52%

×Draw33%

Transport15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JerbaExpected goals in this matchTransport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.46

Jerba

1.10

Transport

0.46

Jerba creates 139% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

0.20

0.72

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Jerba

1.00

Transport

0.20

allows per match

Jerba

0.72

Transport

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par

Transport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under79
Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

Transport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–110%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

21%79%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Jerba or draw

85%

Jerba or Transport

67%

Draw or Transport

48%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+

22%

Transport wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals

67%

Jerba 2+ goals

30%

Jerba 3+ goals

10%

Transport 1+ goals

37%

Transport 2+ goals

8%

Transport 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)

77%

Transport (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

14%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Transport away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 1.00 + Transport defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Transport attack 0.20 + Jerba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Jerba scores more

52%

level

33%

Transport scores more

15%

Jerba at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Kochti

15'

M. Filali

48'

W. Mejri

81'

Y. Ferchichi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff