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Jerba vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — Ligue 2 2020

Jerba
Jerba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
M. Nouioui 52'
G. Chalouf 17' (pen)
5/5/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Arkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Jerba38%
×Draw30%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerba
1.09
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.99

Jerba creates 10% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 27 away

creates per match

Jerba
1.00
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.26

allows per match

Jerba
0.72
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.19

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jerba or draw
68%
Jerba or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
70%
Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
62%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+
15%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals
66%
Jerba 2+ goals
30%
Jerba 3+ goals
10%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
63%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
26%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)
54%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 1.00 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.09

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Jerba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jerba scores more
38%
level
30%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
32%

Jerba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
G. ChaloufPenalty
52'
M. Nouioui
90+1'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jerba vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Jerba beat Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2-0 in Ligue 2 on May 5, 2025.

Goals: G. Chalouf (17' pen), M. Nouioui (52').

The match was played at Stade Arkou in Arkou.