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Jerba vs Mohammedia — Ligue 2 2020

Jerba
Jerba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mohammedia
Mohammedia
3/19/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Arkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jerba44%
×Draw32%
Mohammedia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerba
1.07
Mohammedia
0.70

Jerba creates 53% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jerba
1.00
Mohammedia
0.68

allows per match

Jerba
0.72
Mohammedia
1.14

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par
Mohammedia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

Mohammedia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Jerba or draw
76%
Jerba or Mohammedia
68%
Draw or Mohammedia
56%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+
18%
Mohammedia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals
66%
Jerba 2+ goals
29%
Jerba 3+ goals
9%
Mohammedia 1+ goals
50%
Mohammedia 2+ goals
16%
Mohammedia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)
65%
Mohammedia (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Mohammedia away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 1.00 + Mohammedia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Mohammedia attack 0.68 + Jerba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jerba scores more
44%
level
32%
Mohammedia scores more
24%

Jerba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jerba 2–1 Mohammedia

Jerba beat Mohammedia 2-1 in Ligue 2 on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Arkou in Arkou.