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Jerba vs Menzel Bouzelfa — Ligue 2 2020

Jerba
Jerba
FT
0 – 1
Menzel Bouzelfa
Menzel Bouzelfa
2/21/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Arkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jerba32%
×Draw45%
Menzel Bouzelfa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerba
0.60
Menzel Bouzelfa
0.46

Jerba creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jerba
1.00
Menzel Bouzelfa
0.20

allows per match

Jerba
0.72
Menzel Bouzelfa
0.20

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par
Menzel Bouzelfa+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Under
  • Under91
  • Over9

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

83%No
  • No83
  • Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

Menzel Bouzelfa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–035%
0–116%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–13%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (35%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
65%35%1.5
29%71%2.5
9%91%3.5
2%98%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Jerba or draw
77%
Jerba or Menzel Bouzelfa
55%
Draw or Menzel Bouzelfa
68%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+
8%
Menzel Bouzelfa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals
45%
Jerba 2+ goals
12%
Jerba 3+ goals
2%
Menzel Bouzelfa 1+ goals
37%
Menzel Bouzelfa 2+ goals
8%
Menzel Bouzelfa 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)
58%
Menzel Bouzelfa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
7%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Menzel Bouzelfa away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 1.00 + Menzel Bouzelfa defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.60

Menzel Bouzelfa attack 0.20 + Jerba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 32%?"

Jerba scores more
32%
level
45%
Menzel Bouzelfa scores more
23%

Jerba at 32% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 32% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jerba vs Menzel Bouzelfa

Menzel Bouzelfa beat Jerba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Arkou in Arkou.