Jerba 1–2 Kosovo U19: Result & Stats | Cup

Jerba

1 – 2

Kosovo U19

11/10/2019

Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade de Midoun artificiel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jerba15%

×Draw25%

Kosovo U1960%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JerbaExpected goals in this matchKosovo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.64

1.56

Jerba

0.64

Kosovo U19

1.56

Kosovo U19 creates 144% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

0.67

creates per match

1.80

1.33

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Jerba

0.67

Kosovo U19

1.80

allows per match

Jerba

1.33

Kosovo U19

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par

Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

Kosovo U19 →

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Jerba or draw

40%

Jerba or Kosovo U19

75%

Draw or Kosovo U19

85%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+

Kosovo U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals

47%

Jerba 2+ goals

14%

Jerba 3+ goals

Kosovo U19 1+ goals

79%

Kosovo U19 2+ goals

46%

Kosovo U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)

20%

Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 0.67 + Kosovo U19 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Kosovo U19 attack 1.80 + Jerba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jerba scores more

15%

level

25%

Kosovo U19 scores more

60%

Kosovo U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kosovo U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff