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Jerba vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Ligue 2 2020

Jerba
Jerba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
12/25/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 11Stade Arkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Jerba50%
×Draw29%
EO Sidi Bouzid21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerba
1.32
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.75

Jerba creates 76% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

creates per match

Jerba
1.00
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.78

allows per match

Jerba
0.72
EO Sidi Bouzid
1.65

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jerba or draw
79%
Jerba or EO Sidi Bouzid
71%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
50%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+
24%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals
73%
Jerba 2+ goals
38%
Jerba 3+ goals
15%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
53%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
17%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)
70%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.65 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 1.00 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.78 + Jerba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jerba scores more
50%
level
29%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
21%

Jerba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Jerba 1–0 EO Sidi Bouzid

Jerba beat EO Sidi Bouzid 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Arkou in Arkou.