Jequié 3–1 Lagarto: Result & Stats | Serie D

Jequié

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Lagarto

Nael 77', 75'

Rian Santana 20'

Ueslei 45'

5/25/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Waldomiro Borges

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jequié44%

×Draw32%

Lagarto24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JequiéExpected goals in this matchLagarto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.72

Jequié

1.08

Lagarto

0.72

Jequié creates 50% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

0.87

0.57

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Jequié

1.00

Lagarto

0.87

allows per match

Jequié

0.57

Lagarto

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jequié+0.00on par

Lagarto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jequié ↓

Lagarto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Jequié or draw

76%

Jequié or Lagarto

68%

Draw or Lagarto

56%

Winning margin

Jequié wins by 2+

18%

Lagarto wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jequié 1+ goals

66%

Jequié 2+ goals

29%

Jequié 3+ goals

10%

Lagarto 1+ goals

51%

Lagarto 2+ goals

16%

Lagarto 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jequié (draw refunded)

64%

Lagarto (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jequié at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Lagarto away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jequié attack 1.00 + Lagarto defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lagarto attack 0.87 + Jequié defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jequié scores more

44%

level

32%

Lagarto scores more

24%

Jequié at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jequié will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Rian Santana

45'

Ueslei

75'

Nael

77'

Nael

Jequié

Lagarto

⚽

⚽2

Manager: Alyson Dantas

Jequié substitutes

EdinhoHenriqueCleiltonNetoKaduSenaGugaIagoLimaFlávioRochaWeslley

Manager: Alan Dotti

Lagarto substitutes

EdersonMarcinhoMicaiasSoaresYanSantosDanielIgorLeandroLuanNicolas

Match Recap: Jequié vs Lagarto

Jequié beat Lagarto 3-1 in Serie D on May 25, 2025.

Goals: Rian Santana (20'), Ueslei (45'), Nael (75', 77').

The match was played at Estádio Waldomiro Borges in Jequié, Bahia.

Jequié vs Lagarto — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jequié vs Lagarto