Jeonnam Dragons vs Gyeongnam FC

Jeonnam Dragons

Preview

10:30

Gyeongnam FC

7/25/2026

K League 2 · Round 19Gwangyang Football Stadium

Big match

42%

Jeonnam Dragons

model favours

42%26%32%

Jeonnam Dragons score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons42%

×Draw26%

Gyeongnam FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonnam DragonsExpected goals in this matchGyeongnam FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

Jeonnam Dragons

1.44

Gyeongnam FC

1.22

Jeonnam Dragons creates 18% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 115 away

1.43

creates per match

1.20

1.24

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons

1.43

Gyeongnam FC

1.20

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons

1.24

Gyeongnam FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Gyeongnam FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw

68%

Jeonnam Dragons or Gyeongnam FC

74%

Draw or Gyeongnam FC

58%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+

20%

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals

76%

Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals

42%

Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals

18%

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals

70%

Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals

34%

Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)

57%

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 112 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.43 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.20 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more

42%

level

26%

Gyeongnam FC scores more

32%

Jeonnam Dragons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

73% of Jeonnam Dragons’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Dragons

WLLDD

FC

WDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff