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Gyeongnam FC vs Jeonnam Dragons — K League 2 2018

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
3/16/2025K League 2K League 2 · Round 4Changwon Football Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gyeongnam FC38%
×Draw26%
Jeonnam Dragons37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
1.36
Jeonnam Dragons
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 138 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.34
Jeonnam Dragons
1.28

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.40
Jeonnam Dragons
1.38

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Jeonnam Dragons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
63%
Gyeongnam FC or Jeonnam Dragons
74%
Draw or Jeonnam Dragons
62%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
17%
Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
74%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
39%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
16%
Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals
74%
Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals
39%
Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
51%
Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 119 matches

Jeonnam Dragons away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.34 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.28 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
38%
level
26%
Jeonnam Dragons scores more
37%

Gyeongnam FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongnam FC vs Jeonnam Dragons

Gyeongnam FC and Jeonnam Dragons drew 2-2 in K League 2 on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Changwon Football Centre Stadium in Changwon.