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Jeonnam Dragons vs Gimpo Citizen — K League 2 2026

Jeonnam Dragons
Jeonnam Dragons
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimpo Citizen
Gimpo Citizen
6/22/2025K League 2K League 2 · Round 17Gwangyang Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons37%
×Draw28%
Gimpo Citizen35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonnam Dragons
1.21
Gimpo Citizen
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 89 away

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.39
Gimpo Citizen
1.08

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons
1.24
Gimpo Citizen
1.04

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par
Gimpo Citizen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Gimpo Citizen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw
65%
Jeonnam Dragons or Gimpo Citizen
72%
Draw or Gimpo Citizen
63%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+
16%
Gimpo Citizen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals
70%
Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals
34%
Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals
12%
Gimpo Citizen 1+ goals
69%
Gimpo Citizen 2+ goals
32%
Gimpo Citizen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)
52%
Gimpo Citizen (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 131 matches

Gimpo Citizen away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.04 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.39 + Gimpo Citizen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gimpo Citizen attack 1.08 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more
37%
level
28%
Gimpo Citizen scores more
35%

Jeonnam Dragons at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonnam Dragons vs Gimpo Citizen

Jeonnam Dragons and Gimpo Citizen drew 0-0 in K League 2 on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Gwangyang Football Stadium in Gwangyang.