Jeonnam Dragons 3–0 Cheongju: Result & Stats

Jeonnam Dragons

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cheongju

11/3/2024

K League 2 · Round 38Gwangyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons41%

×Draw27%

Cheongju32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonnam DragonsExpected goals in this matchCheongju

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.16

Jeonnam Dragons

1.33

Cheongju

1.16

Jeonnam Dragons creates 15% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 63 away

1.40

creates per match

1.06

1.25

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons

1.40

Cheongju

1.06

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons

1.25

Cheongju

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Cheongju+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Cheongju →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw

68%

Jeonnam Dragons or Cheongju

73%

Draw or Cheongju

59%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+

19%

Cheongju wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals

74%

Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals

38%

Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals

15%

Cheongju 1+ goals

69%

Cheongju 2+ goals

32%

Cheongju 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)

56%

Cheongju (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.25 · 129 matches

Cheongju away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.27 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.40 + Cheongju defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cheongju attack 1.06 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more

41%

level

27%

Cheongju scores more

32%

Jeonnam Dragons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jeonnam Dragons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff