Jeonnam Dragons 0–0 Busan I Park: Result & Stats

Jeonnam Dragons

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Busan I Park

11/21/2024

K League 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsGwangyang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Jeonnam Dragons35%

×Draw26%

Busan I Park38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jeonnam DragonsExpected goals in this matchBusan I Park

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.33

Jeonnam Dragons

1.26

Busan I Park

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 131 home / 138 away

1.39

creates per match

1.43

1.24

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Jeonnam Dragons

1.39

Busan I Park

1.43

allows per match

Jeonnam Dragons

1.24

Busan I Park

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jeonnam Dragons+0.00on par

Busan I Park+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonnam Dragons ↓

Busan I Park →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jeonnam Dragons or draw

62%

Jeonnam Dragons or Busan I Park

74%

Draw or Busan I Park

65%

Winning margin

Jeonnam Dragons wins by 2+

15%

Busan I Park wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Jeonnam Dragons 1+ goals

72%

Jeonnam Dragons 2+ goals

36%

Jeonnam Dragons 3+ goals

13%

Busan I Park 1+ goals

74%

Busan I Park 2+ goals

38%

Busan I Park 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jeonnam Dragons (draw refunded)

48%

Busan I Park (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonnam Dragons at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 131 matches

Busan I Park away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.13 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonnam Dragons attack 1.39 + Busan I Park defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Busan I Park attack 1.43 + Jeonnam Dragons defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Jeonnam Dragons scores more

35%

level

26%

Busan I Park scores more

38%

Busan I Park at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Busan I Park will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff