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Jeonju vs Namdong — FA Cup 2019

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Namdong
Namdong
2/20/2022FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundJeonju World Cup Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jeonju56%
×Draw22%
Namdong22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
2.00
Namdong
1.17

Jeonju creates 71% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jeonju
1.67
Namdong
1.33

allows per match

Jeonju
1.00
Namdong
2.33

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Namdong+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Namdong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
78%
Jeonju or Namdong
78%
Draw or Namdong
44%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
33%
Namdong wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
86%
Jeonju 2+ goals
59%
Jeonju 3+ goals
32%
Namdong 1+ goals
69%
Namdong 2+ goals
33%
Namdong 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
72%
Namdong (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Namdong away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 1.67 + Namdong defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Namdong attack 1.33 + Jeonju defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Jeonju scores more
56%
level
22%
Namdong scores more
22%

Jeonju at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Jeonju will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonju vs Namdong

Namdong beat Jeonju 2-1 in FA Cup on February 20, 2022.

The match was played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in Jeonju.