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Jeonju vs Hwaseong — K3 League 2026

Jeonju
Jeonju
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Hwaseong
Hwaseong
8/22/2020K3 LeagueK3 League · Round 13Jeonju Civil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jeonju23%
×Draw25%
Hwaseong53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jeonju
1.00
Hwaseong
1.65

Hwaseong creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 54 away

creates per match

Jeonju
0.91
Hwaseong
1.22

allows per match

Jeonju
2.09
Hwaseong
1.09

finishing

Jeonju+0.00on par
Hwaseong+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jeonju ↓

Hwaseong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jeonju or draw
47%
Jeonju or Hwaseong
75%
Draw or Hwaseong
77%

Winning margin

Jeonju wins by 2+
8%
Hwaseong wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Jeonju 1+ goals
63%
Jeonju 2+ goals
26%
Jeonju 3+ goals
8%
Hwaseong 1+ goals
81%
Hwaseong 2+ goals
49%
Hwaseong 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Jeonju (draw refunded)
30%
Hwaseong (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jeonju at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

Hwaseong away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jeonju attack 0.91 + Hwaseong defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hwaseong attack 1.22 + Jeonju defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Jeonju scores more
23%
level
25%
Hwaseong scores more
53%

Hwaseong at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hwaseong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jeonju vs Hwaseong

Hwaseong beat Jeonju 4-2 in K3 League on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Jeonju Civil Stadium in Jeonju.